Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty for 17 May 2019

| May 16, 2019

Bank Nifty opened flat at 28625, registered day’s low 28525 and bounced back again by more than 400 points to registered day’s high 28947 and finally closed 238 points up at 28855.

Yesterday, 28643-28699 was the immediate resistance range with 28699 as immediate upside breakeven point. Bank Nifty was expected to bounce towards 28932-29058 if breaks and stay above 28699 for 15 minute. Otherwise, further decline towards 28547-28231 can be expected in coming sessions.

No particular trade was suggested in the report. 28800 Put of 16th May was suggested to buy during live market through WhatsApp at 220 with exact stoploss 159. 28800 Put bounced 2-3 times till 265-275 but later stoploss was triggered and trade closed with 70 points loss. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 25 February 2019 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 24240.

It seems wave completed from 24240-27754 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed from 27754-26441 may be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be completed at 30670.

38% retracement of progress of wave (C or 3) is placed at 29054 which is already broken, so Bank Nifty entered in short/medium term negative zone and warning cautions for further decline towards 26617-24240 in coming days/weeks.

Now, we need to analyze the move started after 30670 on separate lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and internal wave counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

This is Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 30670.

It seems wave completed from 30670-29435 may be wave [A or 1], wave completed from 29435-30121 may be wave [B or 2] and wave [C or 3] may be in progress from 30121.

38% retracement of progress of wave [C or 3] is placed at 29294. So, 29294 is short/medium term breakeven point on upside. We can think of any major upside reversal after break above 29294 only.

Within wave [C or 3], it seems wave [1] may be completed at 29537, wave [2] may be completed at 29835, wave [3] may be completed at 28784 and wave [4] may be in progress.

Within wave [4], it seems wave (a) may be completed at 29198, irregular (b) may be completed at 28525 and wave (c) may be in progress.

100%-123% projection for wave (c) of [4] is placed at 28939-29036 which is the minimum projection for completion of wave (c).

Now, let’s analyze the progress of wave [5] on separate lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and immediate important levels.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

This is 05 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 28525 which I am expecting start inner wave (c) of [4] on the previous chart.

It seems wave (i) may be completed at 28649, wave (ii) may be completed at 28546, wave (iii) may be completed at 28832, wave (iv) may be completed at 28667 and wave (v) may be completed at 28947 or still in progress.

Within wave (v), it seems wave 1,2,3 may be completed till 28947 and wave 4 may be completed at 28855 or still in progress.

Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave 5 is placed at 28961-29028 which is the minimum target range for completion of wave ‘5’ if ‘4’ is already completed at 28855. Whereas 100% projection is placed at 29135.

38% retracement of progress of wave (v) is placed at 28840 which is the immediate downside breakeven point. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay below 28840 for 15 minute can result in further decline towards 28525.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

Overall, Bank Nifty broke short/medium term downside breakeven point after breaking below 29054 and entered in medium term negative zone. So, Bank Nifty is warning cautions for decline towards 26617-24240 in coming days/weeks. Now, 29198-29294 is short/Medium term upside breakeven point and we can think of any upside reversal after breaking above 29294 only.

For Intraday/very short term, 28840 is the immediate downside breakeven point and Bank Nifty if breaks and stay below 28840 for 15 minute can result in further decline towards 28667-28525.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:  

Major support 29054 is broken and Bank Nifty entered in short/medium term negative zone, so cautions for decline towards 26617-24240 are there in coming days/weeks. So, main trading preference would by selling on every 23%-38% rise.  29294 is major resistance.

Intraday buying or selling trade can be planned around 28840 or in 29198-29294 range during live market hours. We will try to look for trading opportunity during live market hour and will send updates by WhatsApp Broadcast.

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DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

 

 

 

                                                               

 

                                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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