Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty for 24 June 2019

| June 23, 2019

Bank Nifty opened flat at 30804, declined sharply just after opening and traded in 30765-30541 range rest of the day with volatile move and finally closed 152 points down at 30628.

Friday, 30730-30672 was immediate support range and bounce towards 31036-31399 was expected as long as Bank Nifty trading above immediate downside breakeven point 30593.

Bank Nifty broke breakeven point 30593 and trailing stoploss for longs was triggered. Further Live updates were sent by Whatsapp during live market hours. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 25 February 2019 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 24240. There is no change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems wave completed from 24240-27754 may be wave (1), wave completed from 27754-26441 may be wave (2) and wave (3) may be completed from 26441-31783 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (3) is placed at 30522-29742. So, 30522-29742 is the major support with 29742 as major downside breakeven point or trend reversal point. We can think of any downside reversal after breaks below 29742 only. Bank Nifty already entered in support range 30522-29742, registered low 30220 and bounce back.

Now, we need to analyze the decline started from all time high 31783 separately on lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and internal wave counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Minute chart

This is 30 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from all time high 31783 which I am analyzing independently. The pattern of this decline is very complex and confusing because of repeated impulsive moves.

There is straight line decline from 31783-30623, so we can’t count its inner waves. But the personality of this decline is impulsive. This decline can be wave (a) or (1) or (c) of Irregular Correction.

Further bounce from 30623-31752 also looks like an impulsive move, we can mark it as wave (A or C). But the later decline from 31752-30627 also looks like impulsive wave which I marked as wave (a or 1). Overall, there is confusion within the move from 31783-30623-31752.

We can only conclude that the decline from 31399-30220 is 3 waves [abc] move with inner wave [a] completed from 31399-30638, [b] from 30638-31036 and wave [c] completed from 31036-30220.

This [abc] pattern from 31399-30220 is indicating bounce towards 31036-31399 soon.

Now, we need to analyze the bounce started from low 30220 separately on lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and internal wave counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

This is 05 Minute chart covering move from low 30220 which I am analyzing independently.

It seems wave completed from 30220-30824 may be wave [a or 1] and wave [b or 2] may be in progress from 30824. 61%-78% retracement of wave [a or 1] is placed at 30450-30349 which is normal support range on downside.
Within wave [b or 2], wave completed at 30586 may be wave (a or 1), wave completed at 30765 may be wave (b or 2) and wave (c or 3) may be in progress. There is overlapping within wave (c or 3), so pattern is not clear, even (c or 3) didn’t achieve normal 100%-123% projection.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

There is no major change on Outlook yet. Overall, Bank Nifty is in positive zone and it can bounce for new high above 31783 as long as trading above major downside breakeven/trend reversal point 29742 [30522-29742 is major support range on downside]. We can think of any downside reversal after breaks below 29742 only.

Intraday/Very short term, there is possibility for bounce towards 31036-31399 in coming days/weeks and 30450-30349 is reasonable downside support. We don’t have any upside breakeven point because pattern of wave (c or 3) on 5 minutes chart is not clear.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:

Overall, pattern is indicating bounce towards 31036-31399 in coming days with 30450-30349 as reasonable downside support/low risk buying range.

So, short term trading strategy would be “Buying on Dips” in support range using stoploss below 30220 expecting bounce towards 31036-31399 in coming days/weeks. Any nearby levels and small stoploss can be calculated during market hours only.

Further, any change in trend, or pattern or important levels or fresh support/resistance/breakeven point will be updated during market hours through WhatsApp Broadcast.

Disclaimer: This analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

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Category: Bank Nifty

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