Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty for 30 May 2019

| May 29, 2019

Bank Nifty opened lower at 31459, registered high 31546 and declined back again to register low 31257 and finally closed 302 points down at 31295.

Yesterday, bounce towards 31870-32257 was expected with 31539 as immediate breakeven point. 31328-31266 was next short term support after 31539. Trend reversal was expected after break below 31266.

Bank Nifty entered in support range 31328-31266 and finally closed at 31295. 31169 was suggested as fresh downside breakeven point by updates sent through WhatsApp Broadcast during live market hours.  Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 25 February 2019 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

 This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 24240. There is slight change in wave counts.

It seems wave completed from 24240-27754 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed from 27754-26441 may be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be in progress.

Within wave (C or 3), it seems wave (i), (ii), (iii),(iv) may be completed till 28525 and wave (v) may be in progress.

Wave (v) achieved 61% projection after breaking above 31138 whereas next 100% is placed at 32754 which may or may not be achieved.

Now, we need to analyze the bounce started from low 28525 separately on lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and internal wave counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

This is 15 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move low 28525 which I am expecting start of inner wave (v) of (C or 3) on the previous chart.

It seems wave [1] may be completed at 29036, wave [2] may be completed at 28922, wave [3] may be completed at 31705, wave [4] may be completed at 30292 and wave [5] may be in progress.

Wave [5] achieved minimum 31705 whereas next 61% projection is placed at 32257 which may or may not be achieved.

Now, we need to analyze the progress of wave [5] separately on lowest time frame chart to check its pattern and internal wave counts.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

This is 15 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move low 30292 which I am expecting start of inner wave [5] of (v) on the previous chart.

It seems wave [i],[ii],[iii] may be completed till 31712 and wave [iv] may be in progress.

Within wave [iv], it seems wave (a ) may be competed at 31418, irregular wave (b) may be completed at 31671 and wave (c) may be completed at 31257 or still progress.

If wave [iv] completed at 31257 then minimum 38%-61% projection for wave [v] is placed at 31799-32134 which is the minimum target range for completion of wave [v].

38% retracement of progress of whole wave [5] is placed at 31169 which is the immediate breakeven/Trend reversal point. Bank Nifty can bounce further towards 31799-32134 without breaking below 31169. But if it breaks and stay below 31169 for more than 5-10 minute can result in further decline towards 30564-30292 again.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

Bank Nifty already bounced by 1400 points from major support 30462-29694 and is already broke All Time High 31705.  So, we need to concentrate on internal wave started after 30292 to calculate further outlook.

Intraday/Very short term, Bank Nifty is still in positive zone and has possibility to bounce further towards 31799-32134 as long as trading above 31169.

But Bank Nifty if breaks below 31169 for 5 minute can result in further decline towards 30564-30292. We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:  

For Intraday/Very Short Term, 31328-31266 is still the low risk buying range with 31169 as Trend reversal/stoploss whereas 31799-32134 is expected target range on upside.

Confident selling can be done after break below 31169 only for targets 30564-30292. Entry levels and stoploss for selling can be calculated after breakdown only.

Option premium is back to normal now, so trades can be done by buying suitable options according to levels and trend.

Any change in trend, or pattern or important levels or fresh support/resistance/breakeven point will be notified during market hours through WhatsApp Broadcast.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

 

 

                                                               

 

                                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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