Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame Charts

| February 10, 2020

It has been 09 months before I had prepared my last analysis report on all time frames, link to that analysis report is Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame. So, this weakened I again decided to look at all time frames to revise wave counts. Let’s start from monthly chart.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Monthly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Monthly chart

This is monthly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering life time move from low 3314.

It seems wave (1) may be completed at 13303, wave (2) may be completed at 8866 as Irregular Correction and wave (3) may be in progress.

And within wave (3), it seems inner waves (i) may be completed at 20907, wave (ii) may be completed at 13407 and wave (iii) may be in progress.

Again within wave (iii) of (3), it seems wave [1] may be completed at 20575, wave [2] may be completed at 17606, wave [3] may be completed at 27652, wave [4] may be completed at 24240 as Irregular Correction and wave [5] may be in progress.

Wave [3] is not extended, so wave [5] need to be extended. Minimum 61%-100% projection is placed at 33043-38485 which is minimum target range for completion of wave [5]. Bank Nifty achieved 32613 till now.

Overall, Bank Nifty is still within wave (3) on larger time frame which indicates that Bank Nifty still has long way to go on larger time frame, although small corrections are expected in between.

This monthly chart can help in suggesting trend for larger time frames but it is not going to help in calculating any confident upside levels for short/medium term trade.

So, we need to analyze the progress of very last upside wave [5] of (iii) of (3) started from 24240 separately on lowest possible time frame to calculate further levels.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering bounce after 24240 which I am expecting start of inner wave [5] of wave (iii) on the previous Monthly chart. Earlier we had two possibilities but possibility of Irregular Correction is almost negated, possibility of ED is most probable now.

So, (abc) wave completed from 24240-31783 can be inner wave (1) of ED, and wave (2) of ED may be completed from 31783-26560 and wave (3) of ED may be in progress.

Within wave (3) of ED, it seems wave [i],[ii],[iii],[iv] may be completed till 29612 and wave [v] may be in progress.

Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave [v] of (3) of ED is placed at 31539-32729 but earlier high was 32613. So, 32613-32729 was minimum target range for completion of wave [v] if wave completed at 29612 is really wave [iv].

Now, let’s analyze the bounce started from low 29612 on separate lowest possible time frame to calculate immediate support.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Min chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Min chart

This is 15 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 29612 which I am expecting start of wave [v] of wave (3) of ED on previous chart.

It seems wave [1] may be completed at 30083, wave [2] may be completed at 29786 and wave [3] may be completed at 31470 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave [3] is placed at 31072-30826 which is short term support range and 30826 is short term downside breakeven point. Bank Nifty is in positive zone as long as trading above 30826 and has possibility to bounce towards 32347-32613.

But Bank Nifty if breaks and stays below 30826 for 15 minute can result in further decline towards 29786-29612.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

For Long term, Bank Nifty is still in major wave (3) and has long way to go. Levels wise, Bank Nifty is still in medium/long term positive zone and has possibility to bounce towards 33043-38485 in comings weeks/months. Any major downward reversal can be expected after break below 24240 only (start of wave [5]).

But, we need to concentrate on bounce started from 29612 to calculate short/medium term possibilities.

For short term, Bank Nifty is in positive zone and Bank Nifty is expected to bounce towards 32613-32729 in coming days/sessions as long as trading above short term downside breakeven point 30826. We can think of any bigger downside reversal after breaks/stay below 30826 only.

We need to keep all these conditions and levels in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:

Short term trading strategies is buying on dips with stoploss some points below 30826 expecting bounce towards 32347-32613 in coming sessions. 31072-30826 is short term support/low risk buying range and it is wise to wait for correction towards support for best risk reward.

Any other intraday trading opportunity for small swings will be updated during live market hours if we identify any.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

                                                                

 

                                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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