Fresh Elliott Wave Outlook of Bank Nifty for 20 January 2020 Onward

| January 19, 2020

Bank Nifty opened gap down at 31571, declined further to register day’s low 31445 and bounced back by more than 250 points to register day’s fresh high 31773 and finally closed 263 points down at 31590.

Friday, 31851-32041 was immediate resistance range and Bank Nifty was expected to decline further towards 31051-30899 as long as Bank Nifty trading below 32041.

Trading strategy was to hold shorts or Sell fresh in 31851-32041 range using stoploss some points above 32041 expecting decline towards 31051-30899 in coming days/sessions. Bank Nifty declined by 406-550 points from resistance range 31851-32041 and finally closed at 31590. Now, let’s have a fresh look at latest charts for further scenario.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering bounce after 24240. There is no major change in wave counts on this chart. Earlier we had two possibilities but possibility of Irregular Correction is almost negated, possibility of ED is most probable now.

So, (abc) wave completed from 24240-31783 can be inner wave (1) of ED, and wave (2) of ED may be completed from 31783-26560 as Simple Zigzag or still in progress as Complex Correction. We need to concentrate on bounce after 26560 to check its pattern.

From low 26560, wave completed from 26560-30801 can be marked as wave (a or 1), decline from 30801-27568 can be marked as wave (b or 2) and wave (c or 3) may be completed at 32613 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (c or 3) is placed at 31422-30685 which is short term support range and 30685 is short term downside breakeven point. Bank Nifty is in positive zone for short/medium term as long as trading above 30685. Any major downside reversal can be expected after break below 30685 only.

Now, let’s analyze the decline started from all time high 32613 on separate lowest possible time frame.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Minute chart

This is 30 minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from all time high 32613 which I am analyzing independently.

It seems an Impulse completed from 32613-30899 may be wave [a or 1], wave [b or 2] may be completed from 30899-32347 and wave [c or 3] may be in progress.

Within [b or 2], 23%-38% retracement of inner wave (c) is placed at 32042-31851 and same is already broken. Break below 31851 is indicating decline towards 31051-30899 and 31851-32042 can act as immediate resistance.

Now, let’s analyze the decline started from 32347 on separate lowest possible time frame.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

This is 15 minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 32347 which I am expecting start of wave [c or 3] on previous 30 Minute chart.

It seems wave completed at 31995 may be wave (1), wave (2) may be completed at 32321 and wave (3) may be completed at 31445 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement of wave (3) of wave [c or 3] is placed at 31657-31789 which is immediate resistance range and 31789 is immediate downside breakeven point. Bank Nifty is in negative zone and it can decline further towards 31051-30899 as long as trading below 31789.

But Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 31789 for 15 minutes can result in further bounce towards 32000-32347 in coming sessions.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

For short term, Bank Nifty is in positive zone with 31422-30685 as short term support range and 30685 as short term downside breakeven point. We can think of any big fall after breaks and stay below 30685 only.

For Intraday/very short term, 31657-31789 is immediate resistance range and Bank Nifty has possibility to decline further towards 31051-30899 as long as trading below 31789. We can think of any positivity after staying above 31789 for 15 minute only. Although, 31851-32042 can still act as next resistance after 31789.

We need to keep all these conditions and levels in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:

  1. Fresh selling can be done in 31657-31789 using stoploss some points above 31789 expecting decline towards 31051-30899 in coming days.

 

  1. Those who still holding Bank Nifty sold in 31851-32041 range can also hold with same stoploss of 31789 expecting decline towards 31051-30899 in coming days.

Any other intraday trade for small swings can be planned during live market hours and same will be updated through Live Updates.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behavior based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

 

 

                                                               

 

                                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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