Fresh Elliott Wave Outlook of Bank Nifty for 24 Sep 2019 Onward

| September 23, 2019

Bank Nifty opened huge gap up at 30039, declined to register low 29776 but bounced back again by more than 1000 points to registered day’s high 30801 and finally closed 1584 points up at 30566.

Yesterday, 28763-28357 was immediate support range with 28357 as immediate downside breakeven point. Bank Nifty was expected to give one more for high above 29418 as long as trading above 28357. Otherwise, decline towards 26643 was possible if Bank Nifty trades below 28357 for 15 minutes.

We didn’t suggest any trade in last analysis report because Support Range and Stoploss was big. Furthermore, Bank Nifty opened huge gap up so all the levels were changed. Further, latest updates with fresh levels and fresh outlook were sent to “Live Updates Subscribers” during market hours through whatsapp broadcast. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering bounce after 24240. There is no major change in wave counts on this chart. Earlier we had two possibilities but possibility of Irregular Correction is almost negated, possibility of ED is most probable now.

So, (abc) wave completed from 24240-31783 can be inner wave (1) of ED, decline from 31783-26560 can be wave (2) of ED and wave (3) of ED may be in progress. Wave (3) of ED will have (abc) pattern.

So, if it really (3) of ED started from 26560 then Bank Nifty can rise towards new high with repeated volatile up/down swings because ED have (abc-abc-abc-abc-abc) structure.

But there is little confusion at bottom near 26560 which I am going to explain ion next chart.

This is hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move after 28602 which I am analyzing independently.

The bounce after 27392-28602 looks like corrective (abc) but if we assume wave (iv) completed at 28602 then wave (v) from 28602-26560 didn’t complete its pattern. The decline from 28602-26560 looks corrective whereas wave (v) is always Impulse or Ending Diagonal Triangle. This will be the point of confusion for time being.

But no matter if the decline from 28602-26560 is Impulse or Corrective, next move can be calculated based on the pattern of bounce after 26560 only. So, we are going to ignore earlier move for time being and will concentrate on the pattern of bounce after 26560.

From low 26560, it seems wave completed at 28277 may be wave [A or 1], wave completed at 26641 may be wave [B or 2] and wave [C or 3] may be in progress.

Within wave [C or 3], wave (i) may be completed at 28126, wave (ii) may be completed at 26643, wave (iii) may be complete at 29418, wave (iv) may be completed at 28834 and wave (v) may be completed at 30801 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave [C or 3] is placed at 29819-29212 which is major support range with 29212 as major downside downside breakeven point.

Now, let’s have a separate look at progress of wave (v) of [C or 3] on lowest possible time frame.

This is 05 minutes time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering bounce after 28834 which I am expecting start of wave (v) of wave [C or 3] on hourly chart.

It seems wave (1) may be completed at 29063, wave (2) may be completed at 28914, wave (3) may be completed at 30565, wave (4) may be completed at 28834 and wave (5) may be in progress.

Wave (5) achieved minimum 38% projection placed at 30437 whereas next 61%-100% projection is placed at 30845-31507. 100% projection 31507 is a rare possibility.

Within wave (5), it seems wave [i],[ii],[iii],[iv] may be completed till 30425 and wave [v] may be in progress.

38%-61% projection for wave [v] is placed at 30816-31058 which is the minimum expected target range for completion of wave [v], if wave [iv] is already completed at 30425.

23%-38% retracement for wave [iv] is placed at 30559-30409 and same is immediate support range on downside with 30409 as immediate downside breakeven point. bank Nifty if breaks and stay below 30409 for more than 15 minutes can result in further decline towards major support 29819-29212, otherwise further bounce towards 30816-31058 is possible.

Conclusion and Outlook:-

Overall, Bank Nifty is in positive zone with 29819-29212 as major support and 29212 as major downside breakeven point. Any major downside reversal can be expected after break below 29912 only. 

For Intraday/Very Short Term, 30559-30409 is immediate support range on downside with 30409 as immediate downside breakeven point. bank Nifty if breaks and stay below 30409 for more than 15 minutes can result in further decline towards major support 29819-29212, otherwise further bounce towards 30816-31058 is possible.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:

For Intraday/Very Short Term: Bank Nifty can be bough if get near 30409 using stoploss of 30369 (50 points below 30409) expecting bounce towards 30801. Keep strict stoploss and exit trade intraday.

On other side, bank Nifty if breaks and stay below 30409 for 15 minutes then further bounce towards 30409-30559 can be sold using exact stoploss of 30667 (just above 30559) expecting decline towards 29819-29212.

On Upside, Nifty if bounce further near 31500 then it can be sold using stoploss of 31557 (50 points above 31507) expecting decline of 400-600 points.

Be strict to intraday trades and use strict stoploss because volatility is expect to be continued.

Further, any change in trend, or pattern or important levels or fresh support/resistance/breakeven point will be

updated during market hours through WhatsApp Broadcast.

Tags: ,

Category: Bank Nifty

About the Author ()

Comments are closed.