Further Elliott Wave Analysis updates of Bank Nifty for 03 July 2018 onward

| July 2, 2018

Bank Nifty opened flat at 26364, registered high 26371 and declined by more than 250 points to register low 26060 but bounced back again by more than 200 points till 26292 and finally closed 133 points down at 26230.

Yesterday, 26310-26277 was the immediate support range on downside with 26161 as pattern negation point and 26069 was the pattern negation point for ED (Ending Diagonal Triangle). 25988 was the short term breakeven point on downside below which we could think of any bigger reversal.

Trading strategy was holding Bank Nifty 27000 call of 26 July expiry bought in 26224-26161 range with trailing stoploss of 26219 and fresh buying was suggested if Bank Nifty decline towards 26161-26069 again using stoploss of 26059. Stoploss of 26219 was trigged and fresh trade was activated in 26161-26069 range, Bank Nifty declined till 26060 and bounced back till 26292. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts for further move.

This analysis report is covering bounce from 17606 which I am expecting as start of inner wave [3] in my last all time frames analysis report Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on all time Frame charts Dated 01 April 2018

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty which I am expecting as start of wave [3] on the previous chart. This is the same chart with explanation which I had explained in last report because there is no change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems wave [i],[ii],[iii], may be completed till 25198, wave [iv] may be completed at 23605 as irregular correction and wave [v] may be in progress.

If I am right at identifying the pattern then wave [v] must complete above 27652 (minimum 38%-61% projection for wave [v] is placed at 26505-28296 but earlier top is 27652), so 27652-28296 is the minimum range for completion of wave [v]) in comings weeks/months. But if am wrong at identifying wave [iv] as Irregular Correction then we can see one more decline below 23605.

So let’s look at the pattern of bounce started from 23605 if it carries the personalities of wave [v] or not.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

This is 5 Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering bounce from 23605 which I had marked as start of inner wave [v] of wave [3] on the previous chart. This is the same chart with explanation which I had explained in last report because there is no change in wave counts on this chart.

From low 23605, it seems wave completed at 24666 may be wave (A or 1), wave completed at 24087 may be wave (B or 2) and wave (C or 3) may be completed at 27164.

38% retracement of the progress of wave (C or 3) is placed at 25988 which is the short term breakeven point below which we can think of any big downside reversal. Bank Nifty achieved 26069 till now.

But if wave (3) completed at 27164 and (4) completed at 26060 then wave (5) needs to complete higher above 27164.

Now, we need to concentrate on decline started from 27164 on separate lowest time frame chart to calculate immediate moves.

Elliott  wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

This is Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from high 27164.

The decline from high 27164-26069 looks like corrective wave (abc) indicating a corrective pattern completed.

Next bounce from 26069-26806 looks like a Double Zigzag Correction (abc-X-abc).

But decline from 26806 broke 26069 and looks like impulse making it difficult to understand whole pattern. May be the whole decline started from high 27164 is going to become Bigger Complex Correction or there is something else which I am not able to understand yet.

So, we need to concentrate on decline started from high 26806 on separate chart for next immediate move until the pattern gets clear: –

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

This is 15 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 26806.

It seems an impulse completed from 26806-26060 but we can’t figure which wave this impulse is.

Fibonacci calculations wise, 38%-61% retracement of this impulsive wave [from 26806-26060] is placed at 26344-26521 which is the minimum expected target range on upside. The bounce can also extend further for higher levels above 26806 but next move can be confirmed after seeing the bounce towards 26521.

Further, there is bounce of about 230 points from 26060-26292 and 61% retracement of the progress of this bounce is placed at 26148 which can be assumed as immediate support on downside.

Conclusion and Outlook:

For Medium/Long term, there is possibility of big Irregular Correction at top, so Bank Nifty is still in medium/long term positive zone and there is possibility for new high above 27652 either from present levels or from 23611-22998. This upside rally must be sharp because of Irregular Correction and it is sharp till now. But we still not confirmed if bottom is already made or pending because pattern at bottom is not completely clear.

For short term, Bank Nifty formed very complex pattern with repeated corrective (abc) moves due to which it’s very difficult to calculate/predict any confident counts at this moment. But very last impulsive decline from 26806-26060 is indicating a minimum bounce towards 26344-26521 which can extend even further for high above 26806. Further move can be calculated after seeing bounce towards 26521 only.

25988 is still the short term breakeven point on downside below which we can think of any bigger reversal. We need to keep all these conditions in mind while planning next trade.

Trading Strategy:  

According to conditions on charts:

 Bank Nifty Calls/longs bought today in 26161-26069 range can be hold with exact stoploss of 26139 (some points below 26148) expecting minimum target 26344-26521 which further can extend towards 26806-27164 in coming days. Hold for next day only if Bank Nifty closes near high of the day.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

CLICK HERE to get Elliott Wave Analysis Reports of Bank Nifty Daily by Email with Expected outlook, Targets, Stoploss and Trading Strategies.

Also Read,

  1. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 23 May 2018 Onward
  2. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame Charts [ Dated : 01-April-2018 ]
  3. Bank Nifty Can Bounce by 1300-2000 Points After Achieving 24048-23842
  4. Bank Nifty Can Decline Sharply by 1000 Points After Achieving 25009
  5. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty for All Time Frames as on 08 January 2018
  6. Bank Nifty can bounce above 25780 sharply in coming days
  7. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 December 2017 Onward
  8. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 November 2017 Onward
  9. Elliott Wave Targets of Bank Nifty for October 2017 Expiry
  10. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 16 October 2017 Onward
  11.  Bank Nifty can Bounce Above 25198 Again in Medium Term
  12.  Long Term And Short Term Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for 14 August 2017 Onward
  13. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 27 July 2017 Onward
  14. Bank Nifty Can Bounce Sharply Towards 24437-24704 in Short Term
  15. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 14 July 2017 Onward
  16. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 July 2017 Onward
  17. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for 28 June 2017
  18. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 23 June 2017 Onward
  19. Bank Nifty can bounce further towards 23464-23587 in Coming Session

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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