Further Elliott Wave Analysis updates of Bank Nifty for 06 August 2018 onward

| August 5, 2018

Bank Nifty opened gap up at 27471, registers low 27448 and bounced back again by more than 350 to register day’s high 27723 and finally closed 339 points up at 27695.

Friday, bounce for new all time high was expected either from present level or from 27292-27151 range with 27124 was pattern negation on downside. 27530 was the immediate breakeven point on upside, and Bank Nifty was expected to bounce towards 27873 if stay above 27530 continuously for 15 minutes.

Trading strategy was to buy 27700 Call of 09 Aug expiry if Bank Nifty breaks and stay above 27530 continuously for 15 minutes [suggested buying in 27530-27480 range] using stoploss of 27449 expecting 27820-27873 as minimum upside target.  Bank Nifty stayed above breakeven point 27530 for 15 minute and later bounced to register day’s high 27723. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering bounce from 17606 which I am expecting as start of inner wave [3] in my last all time frames analysis report Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on all time Frame charts Dated 01 April 2018

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty which I am expecting as start of wave [3] on the previous chart. There is no change on wave counts on this chart.

It seems wave [i],[ii],[iii], may be completed till 25198, wave [iv] may be completed at 23605 as irregular correction and wave [v] may be in progress.

Wave [v] achieved 38% projection after breaking above 26505 whereas next 61% projection is placed at 28296 which may or may not be achieve. Bank Nifty achieved 27873 till now.

Now, we need to analyze wave [v] started from 23605 on separate lowest time frame chart to calculate its inner waves.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

This is 5 Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering bounce from 23605 which I had marked as start of inner wave [v] of wave [3] on the previous chart.

It seems wave completed at 24651 may be wave (1) of [v], wave completed at 24087 may be wave (2), wave completed at 27164 may be wave (3), wave completed at 26060 may be wave (4) and wave (5) may be in progress.

Wave (5) achieved minimum 38% projection after breaking above 27419 whereas next 61% projection is placed at 28259 which may or may not be achieve. Bank Nifty achieved 27873 till now.

Now, we need to analyze wave (5) of [v] started from 26060 on separate lowest time frame chart to calculate its inner waves.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Hourly chart

This is Hourly Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 26060. This bounce I marked as start of wave (5) as marked on 05 Hourly chart.

Wave completed from 26060-27164 may be wave (i) of (5), wave completed from 27164-26671 may be wave (ii) and wave (iii) may be in progress from 26671.

Within wave (iii), it seems wave [1] may be completed at 27124, wave [2] may be completed at 26868, wave [3] may be completed at 27873, wave [4] may be completed at 27327 and wave [5] may be in progress from 27327.

Minimum 38%-61% projection for wave [5] is placed at 27786-28069 but end of wave [3] is 27873. So, 27873-28069 is the minimum expected target range for completion of wave [5].

Now, we need to analyze wave [5] started from 27327 on separate lowest time frame chart to calculate its inner waves.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

This is 05 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 27327 which I am expecting wave [5] of wave (iii) on previous chart.

It seems wave completed at 27384 may be wave 1, wave completed at 27333 may be wave 2, wave completed at 27627 may be wave 3, wave completed at 27564 may be wave 4 and wave 5 may be in progress from 27564.

Wave 5 achieved its 38% projection after breaking above 27678 whereas next 61%-100% projection is placed at 27749-27864.

The normal projection of inner wave 5 of [5] is falling below the minimum projection of wave [5]. So, may be the point 27627 which I marked as wave 3 is actually wave 1 and wave 3 may be started from 27564 and still in progress. I marked 27627 as end of wave 3 rather than 1 because the correction from 27627-27564 is very shallow which is not normal for wave 2.

So, we will assume 38% retracement of the progress of wave [5] as immediate breakeven point on downside which is placed at 27571. The further move of Monday will confirm the actual pattern because Bank Nifty needs to bounce sharply on Monday also if it is wave 3 started from 27564.

Conclusion and Outlook:

For short term, there is no change in outlook, Bank Nifty is still in positive zone and has possibility to bounce above 27873  for new all time high, may be towards 28069 in coming days if I am right at identifying pattern.

27571 is the immediate breakeven point on downside and same can be used as stoploss for any existing longs. Bank Nifty if bounce sharply on Monday also, then it can bounce even further in coming days. Otherwise consolidation at lower levels can result in further fall.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:  

According to conditions on charts,

Those who bought 27700 call of 09 August expiry must book half profit and rest position hold with fresh stolposs of 27563 (some points below 27571) expecting minimum bounce till 27873 which further can extend towards  28069 in coming days.

This is safe and low risk trade I can suggest in these conditions, otherwise traders can plan their own trade based on the conditions explained above.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

CLICK HERE to get Elliott Wave Analysis Reports of Bank Nifty Daily by Email with Expected outlook, Targets, Stoploss and Trading Strategies.

Also Read,

  1. Bank Nifty can give one more Bounce of 350-500 points soon
  2. Bank Nifty can bounce sharply towards 27187-27591 in coming days
  3. Further Elliott Wave Analysis updates of Bank Nifty for 03 July 2018 onward
  4. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for June 2018 Expiry
  5. Bank Nifty can bounce above 27164 in coming days
  6. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 06 June 2018 Onward
  7. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 23 May 2018 Onward
  8. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame Charts [ Dated : 01-April-2018 ]
  9. Bank Nifty Can Bounce by 1300-2000 Points After Achieving 24048-23842
  10. Bank Nifty Can Decline Sharply by 1000 Points After Achieving 25009
  11. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty for All Time Frames as on 08 January 2018
  12. Bank Nifty can bounce above 25780 sharply in coming days
  13. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 December 2017 Onward
  14. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 November 2017 Onward
  15. Elliott Wave Targets of Bank Nifty for October 2017 Expiry

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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