Further Elliott Wave Updates of Bank Nifty for 11 March 2019 Onward

| March 10, 2019

Bank Nifty opened higher at 27686, traded in 27645-27811 range rest of the day and finally closed 02 points down at 27761. Overall, it was a dull day up down swings.

Friday, 27691 was immediate breakeven point on downside and there was a possibility of further decline towards 27492 if breaks below 27691 straightway without breaking 27815. 27456-27318 was short term support.

Trading strategy was to buy Bank Nifty 27300 Call of 14th March weekly expiry if Bank Nifty gets in 27370-27318 range using exact stoploss of 27279 expecting bounce towards 27815-28035 in coming days. Bank Nifty traded in 27645-27811 range and finally closed at 27761. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering very last bounce started from low 24240 which I am expecting as inner wave [4] or [5] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 25 February 2019 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

This is 05 Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 24240.

Its seems wave completed at 25915 may be wave [i], wave completed at 24353 may be wave [ii], wave [iii] may be completed at 27754, wave [iv] may be completed at 26441 and wave [v] may be in progress from 26441.

Wave [v] achieved minimum 38% projection after breaking above 27783 where as next 61% projection for wave [v] is placed at 28612 which may or may not be achieved.

From low 26441, it seems an impulse completed from 26441-27589 may be wave (A or 1), wave (B or 2) may be completed at 26617 and wave (C or 3) may be in progress from 26617.

Wave (C or 3) achieved minimum 100% projection after breaking above 27765 where next 123% projection is placed at 28035 which may or may not be achieved.

Now, we need to analyze the bounce started from low 26617 [expected wave (C or 3)] on separate lowest time frame chart to check inner/immediate counts and to calculate immediate levels.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Minute chart

This is 30 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 26617 which I am expecting start of wave (C or 3) on the previous chart.

It seems wave completed at 27589 may be wave (a or 1) [pattern is not clear], wave completed from 26731 may be wave (b or 2) and wave (c or 3) may be in progress from 26731.

Within wave (c or 3), it seems wave [1] may be completed at 26916, wave [2] may be completed at 26764 and wave [3] may be completed in progress from 26764.

Again within wave [3], it seems wave (i),(ii),(iii) may be completed till 27681 and wave (iv) or (v) may be in progress.

If wave (iv) is already completed at 27492 then minimum 38%-61% projection for wave (v) is placed at 27842-28058 which is the minimum expected target range for completion of wave (v) of [3] in this case.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (c or 3) is placed at 27456-27318 which is short term support range with 27318 as short term breakeven point on downside. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay below 27318 by more than 15 minute can result in further decline towards 26731-26617.

(I calculated 23%-38% retracement from 27681 rather than from 27815 because inner wave (v) of [3] of (c or 3) has not achieved minimum 38% projection yet, so wave (iv) can still turn into Irregular Correction).

Conclusion and Outlook:-

There is no major change in outlook, Bank Nifty charts are indicating that Bank Nifty can bounce further above 27815 may be towards 28035-28612 in coming days as long as trading above short term breakeven point 27318 [27456-27318 is short term support range].

Any small/ bigger downward reversal we can expect after breaking below short term breakeven point 27318 only. We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:  

  1. Bank Nifty if get near breakeven 27318 (27370-27318 range) then 27300 Call of 14th March weekly can be bought using exact stoploss of 27279 expecting bounce towards 27815-28035 in coming days. Bank Nifty can bounce from present levels also but 27456-27318 is support and low risk buying range is near 27318.

 

  1. Bank Nifty if breaks and stay below 27318 can result in further fall towards 26731-26617 but entry levels and stoploss can be calculated after break below 27318.

These are low risk trading strategies I can suggest right now, otherwise traders can plan their own trade based on the conditions explained above.

And remember, weekly options are very volatile and premium fluctuates drastically. So, always try to book part/full whenever seeing reasonable profit because any consolidation for couple of days can eat options premium drastically.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

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Also Read,

  1. Fresh Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame Charts dated 25 February 2019
  2. Bank Nifty Can Decline Towards 26923 Very Soon
  3. Elliott Wave Outlook of Bank Nifty for 31 December 2018
  4. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for 03 December 2018     
  5. Bank Nifty can Decline by 450-700 Points Before 26431
  6. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 15 November 2018 Onward

 

                                                               

 

                                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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