Further Elliott Wave Updates of Bank Nifty for 12 Sep 2018 Onward

| September 12, 2018

Bank Nifty opened higher at 27295, registers day’s high 27318 but didn’t sustain at higher and declined back again by more than 450 points to register day’s low 26772 and finally closed 394 points down at 26807.

Yesterday, 27534 was immediate resistance on upside and 27073-26778 was the normal support range on downside from where Bank Nifty was expected to give a small or big reversal.

Trading strategy was to buy Bank Nifty 27500 Call of 19th  Sep expiry if Bank Nifty get in 26949-26778 range withithout stoploss [Means stoploss for this call is 0] and 28500 call of 27 Sep Expiry was suggested to hold without stoploss. Bank Nifty opened at 27295, declined till 26772 and our fresh trade 27500 call of 19th Sep expiry was activated. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering bounce from 17606 which I am expecting as start of inner wave [3] in my last all time frames analysis report Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on all time Frame charts Dated 01 April 2018

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty which I am expecting as start of wave [3] (explained in my all time frame report.  There is no change in wave counts on this chart. This is the same chart with explanation which I had explained in last report because there is no change in wave counts on this chart.

It seems wave [i],[ii],[iii], may be completed till 25198, wave [iv] may be completed at 23605 as irregular correction and wave [v] may be in progress.

Within wave [v], it seems wave completed at 24651 may be wave (1), wave completed at 24087 may be wave (2), wave completed at 27164 may be wave (3), wave completed at 26060 may be wave (4) and wave (5) may be completed at 28388 or still in progress.

Wave (5) achieved 61% projection after breaking above 28259 and next 100% projection is placed at 29619 which may or may not be achieve. Bank Nifty achieved 28388 till now.

Now, we need to analyze wave (5) of [v] started from 26060 on separate lowest time frame chart to calculate its inner waves.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

This is 05 Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from low 26060. This bounce I marked as start of wave (5) as marked on Daily chart.

Wave completed from 26060-27164 may be wave (A), wave completed from 27164-26671 may be (B) and wave completed from 26671-28378 may be wave (C). But the further decline after 28378 looks like an Irregular Correction.

So, there is possibility that wave (5) progressing as Ending Diagonal Triangle (ED) with inner wave (i) of ED completed from 26060-28378, and wave (ii) of ED may be in progress as Irregular Correction from 28378.

Wave (ii) of ED achieved its 61% retracement after breaking below 26949 [wave (ii) of ED often retraces 61% or more].

From high 28378, the first decline from 28378-27739 looks like an (abc) wave and further bounce from 27739-28388 also a (abc) move, so the combination is indicating a possibility of Irregular Correction with wave (A) from 28378-27739, Irregular (B) completed from 27739-28388 and wave (C) may be in progress.

Within wave (C), it seems wave completed from 28388-27942 may be wave (1), wave completed from 27942-28180 may be wave (2), wave (3) may be completed at 27136, wave (4) may be completed from 27136-27552 and wave (5) of (C) may be in progress from 27552.

Wave (5) of (C) achieved minimum 38%-61% projection after breaking below 26778 whereas next 100% is placed at 26300 which may or may not achieve.

So, we need to analyze wave (5) of (C) started from 27552 on separate lowest time frame chart to check next immediate counts/moves.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Minute chart

This is the 05 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 27522 which I am expecting start of inner wave (5) of (C).

It seems wave [a or 1] may be completed at 27238, wave [b or 2] may be completed at 27508 and wave [c or 3] may be in progress from 27508.

Within wave [c or 3], it seems wave [i] may be completed at 27146, wave [ii] may be completed at 27316 and wave [iii] may be completed at 26772 or still in progress.

38% retracement of progress of wave [iii] is placed at 26979 which is breakeven point and resistance on upside.

Overall, this wave (5) of (C) already achieved 61% projection but pattern doesn’t seems completed, so there is no sign of reversal yet.

Conclusion and Outlook:

For Short Term, the formation of Irregular Correction type of pattern at top is indicating one more bounce for new high above 28388 in coming day but there is no idea of exact bottom at this moment. Inner waves of downward move achieved normal projections but there is no sign of reversal yet.

On upside, 26979 is the immediate breakeven point on upside and Bank Nifty if breaks above 26979 then further bounce towards 27300-27316 can be expected. Otherwise, Bank Nifty if fails to break above 26979 or consolidate below 26979 then there are chances of further fall.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:  

I missed this sharp fall of 1600 points because I gave importance to the possibility of Irregular Correction at top. I tried to buy calls at every support but Bank Nifty started new down wave every time and my trades resulted in loss. Bank Nifty still can bounce for new high above 28388 but this continuous fall and repeated loosing trades disturbed my confidence.

Now, down waves achieved minimum projections but there are no sign of reversal yet. So, note down tomorrow’s opening price and wait for 15 minutes. Bank Nifty if trades above opening price at 9:31 AM (15 minutes after opening) then hold the calls using stoploss of day’s low (low made till 9:31 AM) and hold for next day only if Bank Nifty closes above breakeven point 26979, otherwise exit all the calls and wait for fresh opportunity.

I suggested exiting trades because my confidence is low and I can take wrong trading decisions in such conditions. I would prefer to think over and prepare fresh suitable trading strategies for this market conditions. Otherwise, traders can manage trades based on own experience.

Trading Idea: – 26979 is immediate breakeven point on upside and Bank Nifty if breaks and stay above 26979 for 15 minutes can bounce further towards 27300-27316. Otherwise, Bank Nifty if fails to break above 26979 or consolidate below 26979 then there are chances of further fall. Traders can use this breakeven point and conditions to decide their own trade.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

 

CLICK HERE to get Elliott Wave Analysis Reports of Bank Nifty Daily by Email with Expected outlook, Targets, Stoploss and Trading Strategies.

Also Read,

  1. Bank Nifty can give one more Bounce of 350-500 points soon
  2. Bank Nifty can bounce sharply towards 27187-27591 in coming days
  3. Further Elliott Wave Analysis updates of Bank Nifty for 03 July 2018 onward
  4. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for June 2018 Expiry
  5. Bank Nifty can bounce above 27164 in coming days
  6. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 06 June 2018 Onward
  7. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 23 May 2018 Onward
  8. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty on All Time Frame Charts [ Dated : 01-April-2018 ]
  9. Bank Nifty Can Bounce by 1300-2000 Points After Achieving 24048-23842
  10. Bank Nifty Can Decline Sharply by 1000 Points After Achieving 25009
  11. Elliott Wave Analysis of Bank Nifty for All Time Frames as on 08 January 2018
  12. Bank Nifty can bounce above 25780 sharply in coming days
  13. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 December 2017 Onward
  14. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 November 2017 Onward
  15. Elliott Wave Targets of Bank Nifty for October 2017 Expiry

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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