Further Elliott Wave Updates of Bank Nifty for 28 January 2019 Onward

| January 27, 2019

Bank Nifty opened flat at 27261, registers low 26242 and bounced back to register day’s high 27433 but didn’t sustain at higher level and decline back again by more than 350 points to register day’s fresh low 27045 and finally closed at 151 points down at 27115.

Friday, one more decline towards 27142-27045 was expected and 27385 was the Pattern Negation Point on upside.

Trading strategy was to sell Bank Nifty if get in 27310-27380 range using exact stoploss of 27387 expecting decline towards 27142-27045. Bank Nifty opened at 27261 and bounced straightway above suggested stoploss 27387 within fraction after opening. So, our trade was negated at very opening. Now, we need to analyze fresh charts to calculate further move.

This analysis report is covering decline from all time high 28388 which I am expecting as start of inner wave inner [4] of (iii) of bigger (3) in my last analysis report Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 08 October 2018 Onward

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 05 Hourly chart

This is 05 Hourly time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from all time high 28388 which I am expecting as start of inner wave [4] of wave (iii). Wave [4] may be completed from 28388-24240 as Simple Zigzag Correction.

From low, its seems wave completed at 25915 may be wave (i), wave completed at 24353 may be wave (ii), wave (iii) may be completed at 27369, wave (iv) may be completed at 26408 and wave (v) may be completed at 27754 or still in progress. Wave (v) achieved 38% projection after breaking above 27603 whereas 61% projection is placed at 28341 which may or may not be achieved.

23%-38% retracement of progress of impulse started from low 24240 is placed at 26924-26411 which is the expected range on downside if impulse already completed from 24240-27754.

Now, let’s analyze the decline started from high 27754 on separate lowest time frame chart to check inner/immediate counts and immediate levels.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 30 Minute chart

This is 30 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from high 27754.

It seems wave completed from 27754-27182 may be wave (A or 1), wave (B or 2) may be completed at 27622 and wave (C or 3) may be in progress from 27622.

Within wave (C or 3), it seems wave [1] may be completed at 27385, wave [2] may be competed 27564 and wave [3] may be completed at 27045 or still in progress.

23% -38% retracement for wave [4] is placed at 27167-27243 which is the immediate resistance range from where further one more decline of minimum 199-321 points is possible in coming session. Same 27243 is the breakeven point on upside with 27385 as Pattern Negation Point.

Conclusion and Outlook: 

There is no major change in outlook, Bank Nifty still in negative zone and there is possibility of further one more decline of minimum 199-321 points either from present level or somewhere around from immediate resistance range 27167-27243 without breaking much higher above 27243.

27243 is  immediate breakeven point on upside with 27385 as pattern negation point and Bank Nifty even if touches 27386 will negate the whole pattern marked on 15 minutes chart and it can bounce towards 27564-27622 again.

We need to keep all these conditions in mind while deciding next trade.

Trading Strategy:  

According to fresh conditions on charts: –

Bank Nifty 27100 Put of 31st Jan expiry can be bought if get Bank Nifty in 27243-27385 range using exact stoploss of 27387 expecting decline towards 27045-26923. Book profit or trail stoploss after seeing reasonable profit.

Otherwise Bank Nifty even if touches 27386 will negate the whole pattern marked on 15 minutes chart and it can bounce towards 27564-27622 again but entry levels and stoploss for buying can be calculated after breakout only.

These are low risk trading strategies I can suggest in such conditions, otherwise traders can plan their own trade based on the conditions explained above.

DisclaimerThis analysis report is just for outlook, probabilities and expected markets behaviour based on my personal Elliott Wave Analysis. Any trade based on these reports is solely your decision. I will not be responsible for any trade, loss or profit.

 

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Also Read,

  1. Bank Nifty Can Decline Towards 26923 Very Soon
  2. Elliott Wave Outlook of Bank Nifty for 31 December 2018
  3. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for 03 December 2018     
  4. Bank Nifty can Decline by 450-700 Points Before 26431
  5. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 15 November 2018 Onward

                                                               

 

                                                                                                                                                  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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