Long Term And Short Term Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for 14 August 2017 Onwards

| August 14, 2017 | 0 Comments

Bank Nifty opened lower at 23958 and bounced back by more than 200 points to register day’s high 24191 but didn’t sustain at that level and declined back by more than 300 Points to register day’s low 23868 and finally closed 231 points down at 23985.

Friday, one more decline for low below 24084 was expected and 24482 was breakeven point for upside. I suggested buying Bank Nifty 17 Aug 24500 Put if bounce towards 24450-24482 range with stoploss of 24521 expecting targets below 24084. Bank Nifty declined below 24084 and registered low 23868 but without bouncing near 24450. Now, we need to analyze latest chart to find next move.

Have a fresh look at wave counts of Bank Nifty on monthly time bar chart.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Monthly chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Monthly chart

This is monthly chart of Bank Nifty covering move from all time low 3314 to high 25198.

It seems wave completed from 3314-13303 may be wave (1), wave completed from 13303-8366 may be wave (2) and wave (3) may be completed at 25198 or still in progress.

Within wave (3), It seems wave (i) may be completed at 12225, wave (ii) may be completed at 9944 as an Irregular correction at (b), wave (iii) may be completed at 20907, wave (iv) may be completed at 17606 and wave (v) may be completed at 25198 or still in progress.

Wave (v) of (3) already achieved 61% projection placed at 21157 whereas next 100% projection is placed at 25948 which may or may not achieve.

Wave (v) achieved its minimum projections but I am analyzing this wave (v) separately on daily chart to check if pattern is completed or not.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on Daily chart

This is Daily time bar chart of Bank Nifty covering move from 13407 which is the start of wave (v) of (3) in previous chart.

It seems wave completed from 13407-20575 may be wave 1, wave completed from 20575-17606 may be wave 2 and wave 3 may be completed at 25198 or still in progress. Wave 3 of (v) achieved minimum 100% projection placed at 24774.

Normal 23%-38% retracement for the progress of wave 3 is placed at 23406-22297 which is the estimated range on downside for correction started from 25198.

Now, we need to analyze the decline start from high 25198 on separate 15 min chart to see the pattern formed and to calculate immediate levels.

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

Elliott wave counts of Bank Nifty on 15 Minute chart

This is 15 Minute time bar chart of Bank Nifty Covering move from all time high 25198 which is the progress of wave 4 of (iv) in previous chart.

The decline seems impulsive with wave (1) completed from all time high 25198-24591, wave completed from 24591-24979 may be wave (2) and wave (3) may be completed at 23868 or still in progress.

23%-38% retracement of progress of wave (3) is placed at 24130-24292. So, 24292 is the breakeven point on upside above which we can think of any upside reversal and 24130-24292 is the range from where Bank Nifty can decline again for new low.

Conclusion and Outlook :

For Long Term, Bank Nifty still have long way to go with occasional corrections because it is still bigger wave (3) in progress whereas wave (4) and (5) is still pending. Every Correction is an opportunity to participate for next bullish rally.

For Medium Term, Bank Nifty breached medium term breakeven point 24356 and the decline from high seems impulsive. So, there is possibility of good bigger correction because Impulsive decline from high can be wave (A) and we can expect wave (B) upwards followed by wave (C) downward in coming days/weeks.

23406-22297 is the estimated range on downside for the correction in progress and 24292 is the breakeven point on upside above which we can think of any reversal. 24130-24292 is the range from where Bank Nifty can decline for low below 23868 again.

For short term, A short term bounce of about 240-400 points is expected very soon as 23%-38% retracement for wave (4).

Trading Strategy :

Bank Nifty if bounce near 24292 then 24400 17 Aug Put can be bought in 24260-24292 range using stoploss of 24361 expecting minimum targets below 23868.

Bank Nifty also have possibility for a short term bounce of about 240-400 points from low but I can’t calculate exact stoploss for longs at this point of time. So, experienced traders can trade by their own if like to trade the bounce

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Also Read,

  1. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 27 July 2017 Onward
  2. Bank Nifty Can Bounce Sharply Towards 24437-24704 in Short Term
  3. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 14 July 2017 Onward
  4. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 07 July 2017 Onward
  5. Elliott Wave Analysis Report of Bank Nifty for 28 June 2017
  6. Elliott Wave Outlook and Trading Strategy of Bank Nifty for 23 June 2017 Onward
  7. Bank Nifty can bounce further towards 23464-23587 in Coming Sessions

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Category: Bank Nifty

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